Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 9.883345 11.342562 12.912784 14.724440 16.753208 18.951214 21.508835
2025-11-30 7.749414 9.727755 12.021145 14.861256 18.267804 22.205436 27.083245
2025-12-07 6.796698 9.033889 11.752151 15.269586 19.669032 24.955904 31.752092
2025-12-14 5.797041 8.129892 11.091150 15.080922 20.264583 26.714959 35.283951
2025-12-21 4.855426 7.153618 10.189693 14.432001 20.133914 27.451007 37.454921
2025-12-28 4.453092 6.843807 10.111169 14.818798 21.327581 29.895269 41.888356
2026-01-04 4.077022 6.519809 9.966044 15.074540 22.323506 32.089430 46.054816
2026-01-11 3.648647 6.069136 9.592439 14.962225 22.776276 33.541040 49.252208
2026-01-18 3.271058 5.651992 9.223411 14.812377 23.141216 34.857951 52.287224
2026-01-25 2.981583 5.340073 8.978976 14.815483 23.706625 36.457235 55.757157
2026-02-01 2.754094 5.103248 8.825322 14.934326 24.432721 38.298288 59.623954
2026-02-08 2.513529 4.819512 8.571590 14.872366 24.868529 39.717314 62.914451
2026-02-15 2.275148 4.520444 8.275654 14.731697 25.187263 40.995703 66.084517
2026-02-22 2.106551 4.327447 8.138358 14.834380 25.886018 42.868473 70.210452
2026-03-01 2.010261 4.254926 8.195710 15.254772 27.101653 45.566304 75.669704
2026-03-08 1.823160 3.993117 7.903193 15.061704 27.303053 46.687930 78.736294
2026-03-15 1.588645 3.614295 7.370895 14.415099 26.710089 46.518271 79.764484
2026-03-22 1.522264 3.562243 7.426534 14.800910 27.865525 49.178149 85.341353
2026-03-29 1.443491 3.476626 7.412015 15.056603 28.804851 51.515447 90.472846
2026-04-05 1.325737 3.296847 7.204343 14.944325 29.094599 52.790325 93.920932
2026-04-12 1.214480 3.118946 6.985568 14.794661 29.305063 53.932444 97.178895
2026-04-19 1.129616 2.990265 6.853398 14.797754 29.783372 55.534530 101.239302
2026-04-26 1.063390 2.896882 6.784729 14.916477 30.472412 57.513170 105.983198